Madiun City Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) Forecast Model with Double Exponential Smoothing Holt

Abstract

The Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a percentage of the number of workers in the population of working age (+15 years). Madiun City which is one of the largest cities in East Java Province. However, LFPR of Madiun city only ranks 34 out of 39 regencies/cities in East Java. This situation has become a serious concern for the Madiun City Government, especially the Department of Manpower, to address this issue so that the productive-age population can work optimally. The percentage is issued annually by Statistics Indonesia (BPS) provinces, districts, or cities. The LFPR has time series data, so to predict the percentage of LFPR in the following year, we can use the Double Exponential Smoothing method with the Holt parameter. In this study, Holt parameters suitable for predicting Madiun City LFPR percentage are α = 0.5 and γ = 0.4. The forecast result of Madiun City LFPR percentage with Double Exponential Smoothing Holt (DESH) in 2024 is 68.76% and in 2025 is 69.21%. The MSE value is 29.284, the RMSE is 5.411, and the MAPE value is 5.273%.

Keywords: Double Exponential Smoothing Holt, Forecasting, LFPR, Madiun
MSC2020: 62M10