Pemodelan banyaknya kematian berdasarkan kasus konfirmasi COVID-19 di Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, dan Filipina menggunakan model linear tergeneralisasi

Abstract

In early 2020, the COVID-19 disease, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus infection, became a global pandemic impacting the entire world, including Indonesia. To monitor the spread of COVID-19 and determine appropriate strategies to mitigate its impact, the World Health Organization (WHO) routinely reported confirmed case data and death case data due to COVID-19. Mathematical modeling can help understanding the relationship between the number of deaths based on daily confirmed cases. One simple mathematical model is the linear regression model. The linear regression model requires the assumption of homoscedasticity, and when this assumption fails, linear regression cannot be used. In this research, a generalized linear model (GLM) is used to address the shortcomings of the linear regression model. This research will predict the number of daily deaths based on daily confirmed case data using GLM based on historical data from Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Philippines. The functions used to describe the relationship between predictor and response variables include normal or Gaussian, Poisson, gamma, and negative binomial distributions. To evaluate whether the model fits the data, we used Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Additionally, the goodness of fit of the model in predicting the number of deaths is measured by finding the mean squared error (MSE). The best model is determined by considering the smallest AIC, BIC, and MSE values. The simulation results show that the GLM using the normal distribution is the best model in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Philippines, while the GLM using the negative binomial distribution is the best model in Thailand. Using the GLM, it was found that deaths occurred 14 days after a patient was confirmed with COVID-19 in Indonesia, 11 days in Malaysia, 12 days in Thailand, and 13 days in Philippines.

Keywords: COVID-19, GLM, AIC, BIC, MSE
MSC2020: 92C60, 62P10, 62J02, 62F10